Tasmanian full-time workers average $1,821 a week, about $12,000 a year below the average of the other states, and the state’s house prices and rents have climbed far enough since the pandemic that the cheap-housing side of the old bargain no longer covers the pay cut. That’s the finding at the centre of a new look at what locals call the “Tassie trade-off”: lower pay and fewer rungs on the ladder, swapped for a slower life and a mountain out the back window.
The numbers and the interviews come from ABC News, which spoke to economists, a recent arrival from the Gold Coast, and dozens of Tasmanians who’ve done the sums both ways.
Commonwealth Bank senior economist Ryan Felsman didn’t hedge it. “It is the least financially attractive labour market in the country,” he said.
“It is the least financially attractive labour market in the country.”
Population growth stalls at 0.5 per cent
Felsman links the pay gap straight to the state’s population problem. Annual growth ran at 0.5 per cent in the year to December 2025, the lowest of any state or territory.
“The relationship between the labour market and population growth is strong,” he said.
“People are more likely to stay or relocate to Tasmania if they can see long-term career prospects.”
That’s the bit that bites for anyone running a small trade business south of Bass Strait. Population growth is the pipeline. Fewer arrivals means fewer new houses, fewer renovations, fewer second bathrooms, and a smaller pool of apprentices coming through behind you.
Vacancies are up 146 per cent, but not on the rungs that matter
Tasmania doesn’t have a job shortage, Felsman said. It has a job mix problem.
“Job vacancies are actually up by 146 per cent [in Tasmania] in that period through to the middle of 2026,” he said, referring to growth since the pandemic. The state had roughly 5,800 vacancies in May.
The catch is where those vacancies sit. Demand is concentrated in lower-paid frontline work across health, care, hospitality, education and farming.
“The hardest jobs to find are the corporate, tech and engineering roles that anchor a career ladder, a big part of why some workers leave,” Felsman said.
Sitting alongside that vacancy growth is an unemployment rate of 4.9 per cent as at June 2026, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Participation is the real outlier: 60.6 per cent in June 2026, against a national figure of 67 per cent, in a state with an older and sicker population.
”My equivalent role in Tasmania is $70-80k less”
Before the pandemic, the maths was simpler. You took the lower wage and bought a house for a fraction of what the same place cost in Sydney or Brisbane.
University of Tasmania senior lecturer in economics Paul Blacklow said that gap has closed enough to change behaviour.
“I believe that may have been why in our last spurt of economic growth we didn’t get the interstate migration that we normally do, because our house prices and, in many cases, our rents were higher than many other places on the mainland,” he said.
Tasmanians and would-be Tasmanians put their own figures on it in comments shared with the ABC. One, Mel, wrote: “My equivalent role in Tasmania is $70-80k less. The average mainland role are frequently $30k different to Tasmanian roles.”
Another, Jason, put the family cost plainly: “At least half of my 25 cousins are on the mainland because of the job situation.”
Not everyone regrets the swap. Deborah wrote: “I took a $20,000 a year pay cut. Moving to Tassie was the best thing I ever did. You know, money isn’t everything. I have a superb quality of life.”
The family who moved anyway
Kate Smyth, her husband and their child moved from the Gold Coast to the Huon Valley earlier this year, chasing lifestyle rather than a promotion.
“We were right next to the fastest-growing suburb on the Gold Coast, so there were a lot of people, a lot of traffic, a lot of crime,” Ms Smyth said.
Her partner works as a labourer. She works part-time in a marketing role based interstate, remotely, and says a comparable job would be hard to find locally. Career progression stopped being the point.
“It doesn’t feel like a trade-off to me at all,” she said. “I don’t want to spend my time in a cubicle on my computer.”
Ms Smyth is clear that the move only worked because of timing. The family sold on the Gold Coast when prices were high and bought somewhere more remote in Tasmania, leaving them mortgage-free.
“Yes, we know that it’s a privilege to be in that position, but we wanted to make the most of it,” she said.
What it means on the tools
For tradies, the wage gap isn’t the number to fixate on. The number that matters is the rate minus the rent or the mortgage repayment, and that’s the calculation Blacklow says has moved. A $20 an hour difference that once bought you a house outright now has to survive a rental market that’s tight and prices that have run.
The second thing to watch is where Tasmania’s work actually comes from. Health, aged care, education and farming generate build and maintenance work, but it’s project-driven and it doesn’t come with a salaried ladder attached. Heavy industry is the other leg, and it’s been wobbling.
Liberty Bell Bay’s manganese smelter closed this year, leaving 200 workers without jobs. Boag’s Brewery in Launceston shuts in November, affecting 42 jobs. There are ongoing concerns about Nyrstar and Bell Bay Aluminium, both among the state’s largest employers.
A smelter or a brewery doesn’t only employ its own people. Plants like that are anchor clients for contract maintenance: the shutdown crews, the fitters, the boilermakers, the industrial sparkies and the scaffolders who show up for planned outages year after year. When one closes, that contract work disappears from an entire region at once, and it doesn’t come back.
One thing does cut the other way. An older workforce heading for retirement opens up positions that are hard to fill.
“It does allow some people with less experience a chance at a higher role to prove themselves, so there are potentially great opportunities in Tasmania’s job market,” Blacklow said. In trade terms, that’s leading hand or supervisor sooner than you’d get it in a deeper mainland market, and a shot at running your own crew earlier.
Blacklow also thinks artificial intelligence will hit Tasmania less hard than other states. “Primarily because we do have a large proportion of our economy in making things, so the larger agricultural sector, mining and manufacturing,” he said.
If you’re weighing a move, in either direction, get the local award rate for your trade from Fair Work rather than a mate’s estimate, then set it against a real rental listing in the town you’d actually live in. The decisions worth watching over the next few months belong to Nyrstar and Bell Bay Aluminium, because those two plants carry a lot of northern Tasmania’s industrial trade work on their books.
Frequently asked questions
Why are wages lower in Tasmania than the rest of Australia?
Commonwealth Bank economist Ryan Felsman links it to weak population growth, 0.5 per cent in the year to December 2025, and a job market skewed toward lower-paid frontline work in health, care, hospitality, education and farming rather than corporate, tech and engineering roles.
Is housing still cheaper in Tasmania than on the mainland?
The gap has narrowed. University of Tasmania economist Paul Blacklow says house prices and rents have risen enough since the pandemic that the old cost-of-living advantage no longer offsets the lower wages.
Are there jobs available in Tasmania right now?
Yes, vacancies were up 146 per cent since the pandemic, with about 5,800 open roles in May, but most sit in lower-paid frontline sectors rather than the corporate and technical jobs that build a career ladder.
What industrial job losses has Tasmania had recently?
Liberty Bell Bay’s manganese smelter closed this year with 200 job losses, and Boag’s Brewery in Launceston is shutting in November, affecting 42 jobs, with ongoing concerns about Nyrstar and Bell Bay Aluminium.
Sourced from ABC News, Australian Bureau of Statistics. Original article.
